Stochastic Equilibrium: Learing by Exponential Smoothing

Stochastic equilibrium

This article considers three standard asset pricing models with adaptive agents and stochastic dividends. The models only di er in the parameters to be estimated. We assume that only limited information is used to construct estimators. Therefore, parameters are not estimated consistently. More precisely, we assume that the parameters are estimated by exponential smoothing, where past parameters...

A new adaptive exponential smoothing method for non-stationary time series with level shifts

Simple exponential smoothing (SES) methods are the most commonly used methods in forecasting and time series analysis. However, they are generally insensitive to non-stationary structural events such as level shifts, ramp shifts, and spikes or impulses. Similar to that of outliers in stationary time series, these non-stationary events will lead to increased level of errors in the forecasting pr...

Prediction of global sea cucumber capture production based on the exponential smoothing and ARIMA models

Sea cucumber catch has followed “boom-and-bust” patterns over the period of 60 years from 1950-2010, and sea cucumber fisheries have had important ecological, economic and societal roles. However, sea cucumber fisheries have not been explored systematically, especially in terms of catch change trends. Sea cucumbers are relatively sedentary species. An attempt was made to explore whether the tim...

A Comparison Between Time Series, Exponential Smoothing, and Neural Network Methods To Forecast GDP of Iran

Prediction of global sea cucumber capture production based on the exponential smoothing and ARIMA models

Sea cucumber catch has followed “boom-and-bust” patterns over the period of 60 years from 1950-2010, and sea cucumber fisheries have had important ecological, economic and societal roles. However, sea cucumber fisheries have not been explored systematically, especially in terms of catch change trends. Sea cucumbers are relatively sedentary species. An attempt was made to explore whe...